Maybe we are closer to an historic housing bust than this blogger thought. The bulls have entered outright panic. From The Australian:
Christopher Joye, an Australian property market bull, yesterday offered US guru Jeremy Grantham a $100 million bet on house prices.
Mr Joye, managing director of property research group Rismark International, challenged his equally vocal sparring partner, GMO Capital founder and chief investment strategist Mr Grantham, to put his "money where your mouth is" on the issue of whether Australia really is in a property bubble.
Mr Grantham's downbeat views on Australia's home prices were "sensationalist and spurious", Mr Joye said.
He challenged Mr Grantham to bet the $100m over a three-year term, basing the outcome of the bet on movements in the RP Data-Rismark Australian Capital Cities Dwelling Price Index.
For every 1 per cent rise in the index, Mr Grantham would pay $1m, Mr Joye said. But for every 1 per cent decline in the index, Mr Grantham would receive $1m.
Jeez. Is making a ludicrous bet any way to convince people you're not in a speculative bubble?