Friday, December 3, 2010

Miraculous correction

A few weeks ago this blog pronounced in the post 'Pricing the miracle commodity' that:
... the contract price for Rio is currently hovering in the high $150s per tonne and BHP slightly below that.

Looking at the current quarter (Q4) for clues to contract pricing for next (Q1), to date the average price in the quarter is around $153.4.

Therefore, with a month to go in the quarter, we're looking at a 2-3% correction in ore prices for Q1.

A key pillar of the terms of trade is looking strong another 4 months out.

In recent days, a slew of media reports has suggested a 7-8% increase is on the cards. This blog has checked his math and it was fine. He can't, however, say the same for his ability to read a calender, as his friends and family will attest regarding many missed birthdays.

It got its quarters mixed up.

Therefore, the correction reads: The current contract price is around $142. The current average for the quarter is roughly $155. So, a 8-9% rise is looking a fair bet for Q1.

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