Monday, January 17, 2011

La Nina as Black Swan update

For those that missed it, Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism fame quoted liberally from our very own Flashman over the weekend, firing off a frenzy of activity.

Amongst that traffic was a comment from Bruce Krasting that included an excellent link comparing this super La Nina with those of the past. He concludes:
You are correct that an extreme La Nina is responsible for the wacky global weather of late. The good news is that the cycle peaked in December and we are now reverting to more neutral conditions.

NOAA has an excellent graph that tracks this. Look at how steep this La Nina is. Look also how it compares to the 73' event.

Hang in the Australia (and many other parts of the world) better weather is coming.

The graph referred to is reproduced above. Clearly the mid seventies ENSO suggests a reprieve. But it also displays a worrying double dip. The 1955 super La Nina shows a similar pattern.

The conclusion of the paper referenced by Krasting says it all:
Stay tuned for the next update (by February 5th) to see where the MEI will be heading next. While La Niña conditions are indeed guaranteed well into 2011, it remains to be seen whether it can rally once more to cross the -2 sigma barrier, and/or whether it will indeed last into 2012, as discussed five months ago on this page. I believe the odds for a two-year event remain well above 50%.

Should coal carry a risk premium for the next twelve months?

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