tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5613349802102193582.post7333921183328983..comments2023-12-22T23:56:04.826+11:00Comments on Houses and Holes: Innovation can't save failed innovationDavid Llewellyn-Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01762856583909059662noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5613349802102193582.post-41272130396671901862010-11-08T18:50:08.898+11:002010-11-08T18:50:08.898+11:00Thanks for those Leith. I like how dwelling values...Thanks for those Leith. I like how dwelling values increased from 3.3 billion in March 09 up to 4 billion in March 2010. Lucky we are not in a housing bubble. :D<br /><br />This from notes on B20<br /><br /> "The dwelling stock is estimated by combining Census data and the number of new dwellings completed each quarter (sourced from the ABS) with an adjustment for estimated demolitions. The dwelling price series is constructed from a number of sources."<br /><br />Any ideas as to the those data sources ? The ABS only publish established capital city prices. Then we have RP data and APM.<br /><br />Hopefully not the dodgy CBA figures, where they compared median dwelling prices to average income.<br /><br />http://www.commbank.com.au/about-us/shareholders/pdfs/2010-asx/Australian_Residential_Housing_and_Mortgages_slide_pack_9_Sept_2010.pdf<br /><br />Australia wide median for housing to average income was 4.3<br /><br />They used an average income of $98000 per household.<br /><br />http://www.unconventionaleconomist.com/2010/09/cba-desperately-seeking-housing.html<br /><br />Using that data gives us an approximate Australian median house price of $421000 and about 9.5 million dwellings.<br /><br />Does anyone have any more accurate data?<br /><br />Any data on LVR for mortgage holders only?Pallbearerhttp://www.talkfinance.net/f10/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5613349802102193582.post-8025201780973240732010-11-08T17:51:03.373+11:002010-11-08T17:51:03.373+11:00Guys. RBA Statistical Table B20 has total resident...Guys. RBA Statistical Table B20 has total residential housing value, whereas total housing debt is found in table D2. Go here for the stats:<br /><br />http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/index.html<br /><br />As at June 2010, the total value of housing assets was $4066 billion. Whereas the total value of housing debt was $1126.3 billion (27.7% of assets).Leith van Onselenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02398609396035352262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5613349802102193582.post-67712016109791496872010-11-08T17:09:39.149+11:002010-11-08T17:09:39.149+11:00PallBearer, if you look at ABS 5204.041 and 5204.0...PallBearer, if you look at ABS 5204.041 and 5204.061. Dwelling and residential land values combined are valued at $4.25T. Joye Boy is actually too conservative in his estimate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5613349802102193582.post-44325506476238599722010-11-08T13:46:46.354+11:002010-11-08T13:46:46.354+11:00Just to update Mr Joye's data, according to th...Just to update Mr Joye's data, according to the RBA as of Sept 2010, housing debt is now 1.15 trillion dollars.<br /><br />Total house value harder to determine, but if we take out houses without a mortgage, say close to 40% or around 1.5 trillion in value. <br /><br />That debt is borrowed against about 2 trillion dollars worth of housing.<br /><br />Not quite as impressive sounding as his claim of 1 trillion debt out of a 3.5 trillion housing market.Pallbearerhttp://www.talkfinance.net/f10/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5613349802102193582.post-12312393513542906962010-11-08T08:28:31.567+11:002010-11-08T08:28:31.567+11:00Good stuff, David.
I think you are spot on about ...Good stuff, David.<br /><br />I think you are spot on about the portability issue over to securitisation.<br /><br />I can't help but feel that the taxpayer is being set up big time here. I think we are starting to to see the outline of the strategy that has been developed between the big vested interests (the banks, those with a lot of skin in the game like our Joyous one, and the Government).<br /><br />The formula goes something like this - <br /><br />increase RBA rates + Ralph's 20 = public outrage<br /><br />- exit fees = hoards of people (especially the over indebted) looking to flee the banks, but to where?<br /><br />+ portability + "competition" (in the form of the taxpayer bankrolling the entire RMBS market) = risk moved almost entirely to the public purse<br /><br />And poor old taxpayer is none the wiser....<br /><br />Scarey... time to consider migrating.... nah, I've spent a bit of time out of the country and I reckon this place has the potential to be the best place in the world to live if we could just get some real leaders.... so I'm gunna stay and fight.... just waiting to see what Swan/Gillard come up with this week and will see if I can mobilise some protesters.... no joke.... <br /><br />I went to the 2020 summit (in Rudd's own electorate, actually) and the public feeling on display with regards the housing affordability crisis was incredible.... from a wide range of groups.... from obviously the social services dealing with people/families on the brink of homelessness, to disability services, to migrant services - they all were struggling with the impacts of the bubble.... I'm sure there will be more.... general concerned citizens... and then add students concerned about the future of the country and about their ability to buy a home.... I expect that it should be possible to mobilise a large number of people.....homes4aussieshttp://www.homes4aussies.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5613349802102193582.post-28252359024060780412010-11-08T06:48:14.061+11:002010-11-08T06:48:14.061+11:00And what the Banks can't do in Australia, they...And what the Banks can't do in Australia, they'll go to their subsidiaries in New Zealand, and do.(although our IRD did recently ask for hundreds of millions of dollars back from a collective, them!) The recent 'discovery' here of the Covered Bond market ( that isn't allowed in Australia, I'm told) smacks of The Big 4 securitising through the back NZ door.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5613349802102193582.post-79574821274288918102010-11-08T06:30:50.079+11:002010-11-08T06:30:50.079+11:00You're right, Jonathon, and have amended.
As...You're right, Jonathon, and have amended. <br /><br />As for obsession, probably, yes. I do my best to keep it rational and my goal is accountability but it ain't easy...<br /><br />DavidDavid Llewellyn-Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01762856583909059662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5613349802102193582.post-72148348221099714552010-11-08T06:14:39.981+11:002010-11-08T06:14:39.981+11:00reading joye's paper, he did, in fact, argue f...reading joye's paper, he did, in fact, argue for NECR to be used in a macro-prudential sense. you seem obsessed with this boy.jonathon smythenoreply@blogger.com